KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

26%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.50u · EPS −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:20+00:00	12.6%	3.6%	35.3%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	11.6%	1.2%	33.0%	43.6%	18.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	33.0%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	33.0%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	33.0%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	33.0%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	33.0%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	16.5%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	31.3%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	25.5%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	25.5%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	14.7%	1.2%	25.5%	37.4%	13.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.5%	25.5%	8.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.5%	25.5%	8.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.5%	25.5%	8.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.5%	25.5%	8.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.5%	25.5%	8.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	10.7%	1.2%	25.8%	25.5%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	31%	34.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0955
WeatherNext 2	26%	34.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0666
IFS HRES	26%	35.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0650
AIFS Single	11%	37.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0114
ICON	9%	37.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0077
IFS Ensemble	1%	36.1°F	1.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
NWS forecast	<1%	42.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗