KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

71%

63%

62%

39%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.90u · ICON −38.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	88.7%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	33.6%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	13.0%	59.7%	0.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	25.4%	53.6%	46.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	42.4%	37.2%	44.7%	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	33.0%	33.7%	14.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	24.5%	25.8%	44.2%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	3.3%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	31.4%	32.2%	66.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	24.2%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	27.4%	46.3%	78.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	56.6%	67.4%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	33.0%	32.1%	51.9%	—	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	50.0%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	37.8%	53.1%	41.8%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.5%	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	39.2%	73.6%	44.5%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	54.5%	72.4%	0.0%	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	40.8%	75.8%	63.7%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	65.3%	83.3%	64.1%	—	51.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	75.4%	84.1%	70.2%	76.4%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	67.5%	85.0%	89.7%	—	60.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	79.0%	84.3%	77.0%	66.9%	56.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	74.7%	81.8%	83.6%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	87.0%	77.8%	88.5%	88.5%	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	86.4%	71.5%	97.3%	—	72.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	76.2%	68.3%	96.9%	76.2%	83.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	91.4%	87.7%	98.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	39%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗