KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

12%

11%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.45u · WN2 −80.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	19.3%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.2%	38.7%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	34.9%	26.9%	0.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	45.6%	36.4%	21.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	15.1%	21.6%	40.2%	—	30.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	26.1%	6.7%	18.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	25.8%	13.4%	47.5%	—	16.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.3%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	37.9%	8.6%	14.1%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	6.3%	20.3%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	18.4%	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	12.6%	8.2%	19.7%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	36.3%	11.4%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	19.0%	6.4%	24.3%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.5%	15.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.3%	25.5%	38.2%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.0%	34.6%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.4%	12.7%	22.4%	14.0%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	16.0%	26.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.5%	10.0%	28.7%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.7%	4.9%	42.3%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.0%	4.6%	33.1%	12.0%	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.7%	6.2%	44.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	5.1%	6.3%	41.4%	9.5%	14.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	7.5%	6.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	67.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	67.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	65.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗