KDEN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

12%

11%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.6¢Risks 19.55u

WN2NO 80.5¢Risks 80.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.45u · WN2 −80.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:37+00:00	36.7%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	36.7%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	36.7%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	36.7%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	36.7%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	10.2%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	45.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	10.2%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	45.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	10.2%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	45.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	10.2%	21.6%	15.8%	62.6%	45.9%
2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00	10.2%	21.6%	15.8%	39.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	10.2%	32.8%	5.5%	39.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	10.2%	32.8%	5.5%	39.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	10.2%	32.8%	5.5%	39.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	21.5%	32.8%	5.5%	39.1%	45.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	21.6%	32.8%	5.4%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	5.4%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	5.4%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	5.4%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	6.0%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	6.0%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.6%	29.0%	6.0%	39.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	6.0%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	6.0%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	6.0%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	6.0%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	6.0%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	9.9%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	15.7%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	15.7%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	15.7%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	15.7%	29.0%	4.4%	35.1%	46.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	3.6%	42.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	4.8%	42.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	4.8%	42.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	4.8%	42.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	10.7%	23.0%	4.8%	42.9%	52.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.8%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.8%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.8%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.8%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	14.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	16.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	16.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	16.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	16.3%	23.0%	4.3%	39.0%	21.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00	7.1%	27.1%	7.7%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	7.7%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	7.7%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	24.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	4.5%	28.8%	24.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	4.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	5.9%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.5%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.6%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.6%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	7.1%	27.0%	1.6%	26.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	8.8%	27.0%	1.6%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	8.8%	27.0%	1.6%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	8.8%	27.0%	1.6%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	8.8%	27.0%	1.6%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	8.8%	27.0%	1.6%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	8.8%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	8.8%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	8.8%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	6.1%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	6.0%	37.8%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.5%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.8%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.8%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	6.0%	37.6%	1.8%	21.8%	5.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.8%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.8%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.8%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.8%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.8%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	7.0%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	11.4%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	11.4%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	11.4%	37.6%	1.5%	11.6%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	71.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	67.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	67.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	65.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗