KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

41%

36%

27%

22%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

ICONNO 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.50u · ICON −55.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	67.0%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	11.7%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	47.2%	25.7%	0.1%	—	43.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	22.6%	35.0%	44.2%	—	37.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	38.0%	41.7%	44.7%	—	38.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	42.9%	32.3%	37.5%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	30.0%	43.4%	55.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	8.5%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	41.3%	28.4%	33.0%	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	36.8%	24.9%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	28.9%	27.4%	28.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	42.5%	30.9%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	38.5%	33.9%	39.4%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	38.2%	35.3%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	25.9%	27.6%	39.8%	0.0%	34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	25.3%	28.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	35.1%	32.1%	33.1%	—	39.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	31.5%	31.5%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	28.0%	25.1%	33.1%	0.0%	34.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	34.7%	24.4%	38.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	33.1%	27.6%	37.7%	43.8%	33.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	34.9%	31.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	74.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗