KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

41%

36%

27%

22%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

ICONNO 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.50u · ICON −55.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	38.1%	34.6%	35.0%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	37.2%	34.6%	35.0%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	37.2%	34.6%	35.0%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	37.2%	34.6%	35.0%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	37.2%	34.6%	35.0%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	37.2%	34.6%	35.0%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	37.2%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	37.2%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	37.2%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	32.8%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	44.1%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	44.1%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	44.1%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	38.1%	34.5%	44.1%	43.8%	32.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	40.3%	34.5%	44.1%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	40.3%	34.5%	44.1%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	40.3%	34.5%	44.1%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	40.3%	34.5%	44.1%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	40.3%	34.5%	44.1%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	40.3%	36.0%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	40.3%	36.0%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	40.3%	36.0%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	40.3%	36.5%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	40.3%	36.5%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	31.4%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	33.7%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	33.7%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	33.7%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	40.3%	40.2%	33.7%	61.5%	31.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	33.7%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	33.7%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	33.7%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	33.7%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	39.3%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	20.1%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	32.6%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	32.6%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	32.6%	62.4%	25.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	41.0%	40.2%	32.6%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	41.0%	40.2%	32.6%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	41.0%	40.2%	32.6%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	41.0%	40.2%	32.6%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	41.0%	40.2%	32.6%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	41.0%	35.8%	26.8%	66.7%	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	41.0%	35.8%	26.8%	66.7%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	74.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗