KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

58%

42%

40%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	61.2%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	8.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.1%	14.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	40.3%	20.4%	0.0%	—	36.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	17.5%	28.5%	37.1%	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	30.9%	34.4%	37.2%	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	35.2%	25.5%	30.1%	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	23.2%	35.3%	46.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	5.6%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	33.0%	21.4%	25.5%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	28.7%	18.4%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	21.6%	20.3%	21.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	33.5%	23.1%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	29.6%	25.5%	30.4%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	29.1%	26.5%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	18.3%	19.7%	30.3%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	17.6%	20.5%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	25.5%	23.0%	23.8%	—	29.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	22.3%	22.3%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	19.1%	16.8%	23.3%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	24.4%	16.0%	27.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	22.7%	18.2%	26.6%	32.0%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	23.8%	20.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	78.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	74.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	72.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	72.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	59.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗