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KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
77%
AIFS
58%
EPS
42%
WN2
40%
ICON
8%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u
VS
ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.90u · ICON −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.7% · 2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 76.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 11:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:0057.8%41.6%39.7%76.6%7.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0057.8%41.6%39.7%76.6%7.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:0057.8%41.6%39.7%76.6%7.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:0057.8%41.6%39.7%76.6%7.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0057.8%41.6%39.7%76.6%7.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES77%78.1°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%74.6°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%72.5°F4.7°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 240%72.1°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
ICON8%59.3°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 74°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗