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KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
7%
AIFS
4%
WN2
3%
ICON
2%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.5¢Risks 1.12u
VS
EPSNO 95.5¢Risks 23.88u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.88u · EPS −23.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-12 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.9%————4.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:006.8%————3.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0018.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%————4.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.3%————8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.1%————5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.1%————14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0017.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0015.5%————10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0016.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:007.0%————11.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.9%————9.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:007.8%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.5%————15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.6%—23.6%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.6%————9.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0010.7%—30.7%——13.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—22.6%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.8%—1.5%——19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.1%—10.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:009.0%0.0%2.8%——15.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:008.3%—4.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.9%13.0%4.4%0.0%—10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—11.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.5%3.2%6.9%10.6%—7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.2%—11.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.5%7.3%8.7%10.0%—7.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.9%—8.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.0%8.4%4.9%6.4%—8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.6%—5.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%3.8%7.7%12.9%—6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.1%0.4%2.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.6%6.2%2.9%3.9%—6.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%4.5%2.1%——3.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%2.6%2.3%2.6%—4.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%5.3%2.7%——4.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.4%4.0%3.0%4.2%—4.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.2%3.5%3.0%——3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%1.4%1.6%3.5%0.0%2.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.2%1.6%——2.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%2.1%1.7%1.9%—2.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.5%1.5%0.0%—2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.0%0.8%1.4%0.0%1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%1.4%0.6%1.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.0%0.7%1.4%2.1%1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—1.0%0.8%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES7%71.8°F4.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%73.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
AIFS Single4%71.2°F4.3°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%72.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON2%70.7°F4.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%71.0°F3.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend2%72.0°F3.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗