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KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
84%
HRES
83%
ICON
80%
EPS
78%
AIFS
78%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 81.0¢Risks 20.24u
VS
AIFSNO 19.1¢Risks 4.76u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.76u · AIFS −4.76u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 81.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 87.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 37.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 91.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 88.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 85.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 90.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 80.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 90.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 95.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 73.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 78.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 79.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 64.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 45.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 92.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 97.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 97.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 72.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 77.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 82.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 85.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 90.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 88.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 94.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 94.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 96.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 97.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.4%———0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0068.9%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0014.0%———36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:007.3%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0040.0%———35.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0028.8%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0014.9%———35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0026.1%———48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.5%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%———40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0038.0%———44.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:008.9%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0047.9%———37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0056.9%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0029.2%———23.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0011.3%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0023.2%———24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.9%—45.0%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.9%———13.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.3%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.2%—8.1%—31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.1%—73.0%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.1%———60.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0025.8%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.7%———45.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0036.8%—32.7%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:004.2%—59.0%—32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—64.9%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%19.8%—41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0022.4%—52.1%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0061.8%74.8%44.4%0.1%43.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0052.1%—82.5%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0044.9%81.6%86.9%79.5%72.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0046.3%—84.9%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0051.5%84.9%78.4%50.0%83.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0053.1%—74.7%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0049.2%46.0%77.6%64.1%77.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0052.4%—82.1%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0054.2%87.1%87.5%45.0%82.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0048.3%37.4%90.5%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0058.7%91.3%95.5%92.3%85.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0059.8%88.8%93.5%—90.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0062.7%85.6%97.1%92.1%88.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0059.4%90.4%97.4%—91.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0068.7%87.4%97.0%97.0%94.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0069.2%80.3%91.2%—94.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0075.7%90.6%93.6%97.0%96.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0077.2%90.8%95.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0077.0%95.5%97.2%96.7%97.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—97.6%98.3%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 284%73.5°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS HRES83%74.5°F6.3°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
ICON80%76.9°F9.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%72.2°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single78%72.8°F5.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend52%69.0°F9.3°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗