KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

80%

78%

78%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 81.0¢Risks 20.24u

AIFSNO 19.1¢Risks 4.76u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.76u · AIFS −4.76u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	0.3%	81.9%	67.1%	95.1%	12.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	0.3%	81.9%	67.1%	95.1%	12.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	0.3%	81.9%	67.1%	95.1%	12.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	48.6%	81.9%	67.1%	95.1%	12.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	48.6%	81.9%	67.0%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	67.0%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	67.0%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	67.0%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	74.5%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	74.5%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	48.6%	78.0%	74.5%	95.1%	12.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	74.5%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	74.5%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	74.5%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	74.5%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	74.5%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	84.5%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	77.8%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	77.8%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	77.8%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	77.8%	78.0%	84.1%	82.8%	80.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	73.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	74.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	80%	76.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	72.2°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	72.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	69.0°F	9.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗