KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

36%

25%

24%

20%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.0¢Risks 35.95u

EPSNO 64.0¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.05u · EPS −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	10.6%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	28.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	17.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	23.0%	6.0%	0.0%	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	30.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	28.5%	36.4%	26.0%	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	30.9%	22.8%	6.3%	28.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.5%	20.1%	10.8%	19.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	23.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	29.3%	30.0%	3.6%	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	2.1%	34.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	34.6%	47.4%	37.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	27.9%	38.5%	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	21.6%	51.8%	33.0%	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	27.6%	51.9%	—	29.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	21.0%	47.1%	47.1%	35.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	12.4%	25.7%	—	34.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	22.7%	29.4%	42.8%	38.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	21.3%	33.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	31.1%	39.2%	36.1%	40.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.9%	44.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	36%	74.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	73.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗