KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

36%

25%

24%

20%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.0¢Risks 35.95u

EPSNO 64.0¢Risks 64.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.05u · EPS −64.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:17+00:00	19.3%	20.8%	21.8%	42.5%	50.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	19.3%	20.8%	11.2%	42.5%	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	19.3%	20.8%	11.2%	42.5%	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	19.3%	20.8%	11.2%	42.5%	50.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	24.2%	20.8%	11.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	24.2%	20.8%	11.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	24.2%	20.8%	11.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	24.2%	20.8%	11.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	24.2%	20.8%	11.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	24.2%	21.0%	14.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	24.2%	21.0%	14.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	24.2%	21.0%	14.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	25.6%	21.0%	14.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	25.7%	21.0%	14.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:09+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	14.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	14.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	14.2%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	21.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	21.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	25.7%	20.3%	21.1%	56.4%	49.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	21.1%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	21.1%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	21.1%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	21.1%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	21.1%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	27.8%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	25.0%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	25.0%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	25.0%	20.3%	24.3%	51.6%	36.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	36%	74.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	73.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	73.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗