KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

29%

27%

19%

19%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

ICONNO 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.35u · ICON −67.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	8.3%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.7%	—	2.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	13.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	—	4.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	18.0%	4.2%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	24.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	22.6%	29.7%	20.4%	14.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	24.5%	17.4%	4.2%	22.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	13.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.9%	14.9%	7.5%	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	17.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	22.5%	23.2%	2.2%	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	26.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	26.9%	38.8%	29.1%	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	20.9%	30.2%	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	15.4%	42.7%	25.1%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	20.3%	42.5%	—	21.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	14.7%	37.6%	37.6%	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	8.0%	18.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	15.7%	21.2%	33.0%	29.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	14.4%	24.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	22.1%	29.2%	26.4%	30.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	28.6%	33.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	46%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	19%	74.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗