KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

29%

27%

19%

19%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.6¢Risks 32.65u

ICONNO 67.3¢Risks 67.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.35u · ICON −67.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:23+00:00	0.0%	16.5%	7.1%	59.4%	1.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	0.0%	14.8%	8.6%	59.4%	1.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	0.0%	14.8%	8.6%	59.4%	1.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	0.0%	14.8%	8.6%	59.4%	1.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	5.1%	14.8%	8.6%	59.4%	1.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	5.1%	14.8%	8.7%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	8.7%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	8.7%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	8.7%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	12.8%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	12.8%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	5.1%	13.5%	12.8%	59.4%	2.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	12.8%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	12.8%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	12.8%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	12.8%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	12.8%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	27.9%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	21.2%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	24.9%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	24.9%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	20.1%	13.5%	24.9%	31.8%	47.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	24.9%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	24.9%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	24.9%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	24.9%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	24.9%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	14.9%	13.5%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	14.9%	14.8%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	14.9%	14.8%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	15.4%	14.8%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	15.4%	14.8%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	11.1%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	19.6%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	19.6%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	19.6%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	15.4%	10.0%	19.6%	41.0%	47.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	19.6%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	19.6%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	19.6%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	19.6%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	19.2%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	22.7%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	19.7%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	15.2%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	15.2%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	15.2%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	15.2%	10.0%	20.8%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	15.2%	16.4%	18.4%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	15.2%	16.4%	18.4%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	15.2%	16.4%	18.4%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	15.2%	16.4%	18.4%	59.0%	12.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	16.7%	16.4%	18.4%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	18.4%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	18.4%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	18.4%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	16.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	12.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	14.8%	22.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	14.8%	35.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	17.7%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	14.3%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	14.3%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	14.3%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	14.3%	15.4%	15.3%	35.8%	44.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00	18.6%	14.2%	16.7%	43.6%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	18.6%	14.2%	18.1%	43.6%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	18.6%	14.2%	18.1%	43.6%	29.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	18.6%	14.2%	18.1%	43.6%	29.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	18.6%	14.2%	18.1%	43.6%	29.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00	22.7%	14.2%	18.1%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	22.7%	14.2%	18.1%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	22.7%	14.2%	18.1%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	22.7%	14.2%	18.1%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	22.7%	14.2%	18.1%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	22.7%	22.6%	11.8%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	22.7%	22.6%	11.8%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	22.7%	22.6%	11.8%	58.9%	18.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	23.4%	23.4%	11.8%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	23.4%	23.4%	11.8%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	11.8%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	11.8%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	10.6%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	10.6%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	10.6%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	23.4%	24.9%	10.6%	58.9%	18.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	10.6%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	10.6%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	10.6%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	10.6%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	28.7%	24.9%	17.1%	50.0%	21.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	26.9%	24.9%	17.1%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	26.9%	24.9%	17.1%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	26.9%	24.9%	17.1%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	26.9%	24.9%	17.1%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	26.9%	24.9%	17.1%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	26.9%	29.1%	19.2%	46.1%	19.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	26.9%	29.1%	19.2%	46.1%	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	46%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	19%	74.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗