Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
HRES +33.70u · AIFS −33.70u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
No model probability history is available for this view yet.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFS HRES | 90% | 79.6°F | 6.4°F | 2026-10-15 12:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 83% | 81.0°F | 9.9°F | 2026-10-15 12:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 68% | 73.9°F | 5.1°F | 2026-10-15 12:00 | Pending |
| National Blend | 52% | 72.0°F | 9.9°F | 2026-10-15 06:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 52% | 71.8°F | 6.8°F | 2026-10-15 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 43% | 70.5°F | 5.7°F | 2026-10-15 18:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 72°F · KDEN
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC
Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗