KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

68%

52%

43%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

AIFSNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.70u · AIFS −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	48.5%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	48.5%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	48.5%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	48.5%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	48.5%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	46.5%	40.7%	52.4%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	46.5%	59.6%	52.4%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	46.5%	59.6%	52.4%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	42.2%	59.6%	52.4%	69.3%	9.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	42.3%	59.6%	52.4%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	52.4%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	52.4%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	60.9%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	60.9%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	60.9%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	42.3%	51.8%	60.9%	69.1%	9.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	60.9%	89.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	60.9%	89.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	60.9%	89.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	60.9%	89.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	68.2%	89.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	37.6%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	43.0%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	43.0%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	43.0%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	43.0%	51.8%	68.2%	89.6%	83.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	79.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	83%	81.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	71.8°F	6.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	70.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗