KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

68%

52%

43%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

AIFSNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +33.70u · AIFS −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	36.4%	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	22.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	64.0%	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.1%	28.2%	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	75.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	80.6%	62.4%	0.9%	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	59.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	79.0%	85.6%	62.3%	67.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	76.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	73.0%	46.9%	58.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	82.1%	80.5%	65.5%	73.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	76.9%	—	79.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	75.5%	85.2%	56.6%	78.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.9%	75.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	86.4%	89.1%	85.9%	81.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	67.4%	77.8%	—	82.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	83.4%	61.8%	60.0%	80.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	78.3%	70.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	67.8%	74.5%	36.6%	77.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	52.0%	83.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	79.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	83%	81.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	73.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	71.8°F	6.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	70.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗