KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

63%

39%

22%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

AIFSNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.40u · AIFS −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	8.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.6%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	10.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	44.8%	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.0%	13.9%	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	56.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	63.1%	41.6%	0.2%	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	60.1%	69.6%	40.6%	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	51.5%	25.8%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	53.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	62.5%	60.3%	42.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	54.9%	—	58.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	52.5%	66.2%	32.2%	55.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	51.7%	—	60.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	67.0%	71.6%	66.2%	59.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	41.1%	53.6%	—	59.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	60.9%	34.7%	33.0%	56.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	52.8%	43.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	39.4%	47.1%	14.2%	51.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	24.1%	58.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	78.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	78.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	73.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	70.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗