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KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
78%
HRES
76%
EPS
63%
WN2
39%
AIFS
22%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u
VS
AIFSNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.40u · AIFS −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:30+00:0025.9%54.4%49.0%49.3%68.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0025.9%54.4%56.8%49.3%68.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0025.9%54.4%56.8%49.3%68.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0025.9%54.4%56.8%49.3%68.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0025.9%54.4%56.8%49.3%68.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:43+00:0025.7%54.4%56.8%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0025.7%54.4%56.8%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0025.7%54.4%56.8%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0025.7%54.4%56.8%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0025.7%54.4%56.8%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:0025.7%63.1%39.4%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:0025.7%63.1%39.4%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0025.7%63.1%39.4%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0021.6%63.1%39.4%76.4%77.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0021.6%63.1%39.4%76.4%77.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON78%78.2°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES76%78.1°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%76.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%73.5°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single22%70.9°F4.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗