KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

33%

24%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

AIFSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.85u · AIFS −73.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	17.2%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	2.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	24.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	29.2%	13.7%	0.0%	11.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	25.4%	34.3%	12.4%	15.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	21.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	17.9%	5.4%	9.3%	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	24.8%	23.0%	11.5%	16.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	18.4%	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	16.2%	26.5%	6.6%	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	15.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	25.5%	29.9%	24.8%	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.8%	15.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.0%	6.1%	5.5%	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.2%	8.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.8%	9.8%	1.1%	11.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	2.5%	14.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	76.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	71.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗