KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

60%

58%

49%

36%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.40u · ICON −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.4%	—	18.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	2.2%	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	3.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	3.8%	30.0%	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	63.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	7.4%	17.1%	2.9%	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	40.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	18.4%	47.1%	70.9%	74.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	73.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	62.7%	88.6%	71.1%	73.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	90.8%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	97.0%	91.3%	91.6%	66.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	93.5%	—	78.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	74.2%	94.7%	84.8%	70.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	52.6%	78.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	94.6%	75.9%	87.8%	83.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	94.0%	91.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	73.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	36%	67.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗