KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

60%

58%

49%

36%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

ICONNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.40u · ICON −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	54.8%	69.5%	36.2%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	36.2%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	36.2%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	36.2%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	54.8%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	27.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	35.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	35.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	35.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	48.4%	68.5%	35.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	48.4%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	70.5%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	60.3%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	60.3%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	60.3%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	60.3%	67.3%	57.8%	49.4%	35.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	73.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	72.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	36%	67.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 72°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗