KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

34%

26%

23%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.5¢Risks 15.75u

HRESNO 68.5¢Risks 34.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.25u · HRES −34.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	3.0%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%	3.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	0.9%	6.2%	17.9%	21.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.4%	37.2%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	40.7%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	61.0%	40.5%	41.3%	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	45.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	15.2%	47.5%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	4.9%	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	43.9%	14.6%	27.7%	21.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	40.2%	33.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	78.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	36%	77.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	76.1°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	74.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗