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KDEN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
40%
ICON
36%
WN2
34%
EPS
26%
HRES
23%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 31.5¢Risks 15.75u
VS
HRESNO 68.5¢Risks 34.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.25u · HRES −34.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.3% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 23.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 74.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 36.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:0040.4%26.1%23.3%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:0040.4%26.1%23.3%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:0040.4%26.1%38.5%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:0040.4%26.1%38.5%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0040.4%26.1%38.5%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:0040.4%26.1%38.5%45.2%74.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:0035.1%26.1%38.5%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0035.1%26.1%38.5%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0035.1%26.1%38.5%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:0035.1%26.1%38.5%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:0035.1%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:0035.1%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:0035.1%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:0039.6%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:0039.6%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:0039.6%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0039.6%25.7%34.0%23.4%36.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
AIFS Single40%78.2°F5.0°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON36%77.3°F6.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%77.8°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%76.1°F5.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend24%74.0°F7.7°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES23%75.3°F5.8°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗