KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

62%

38%

35%

28%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

WN2NO 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.90u · WN2 −41.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	34.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	43.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	2.2%	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	7.5%	14.7%	—	73.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	79.1%	28.6%	18.0%	58.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	23.7%	8.7%	77.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	17.9%	55.3%	62.0%	59.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	44.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	5.1%	51.6%	67.0%	57.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	19.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	70.6°F	8.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	62.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	11.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	58.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	56.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	57.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗