KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

51%

23%

21%

20%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.45u

ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	12.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	16.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.1%	2.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	47.2%	7.4%	3.6%	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	5.1%	1.1%	43.4%	27.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	3.0%	20.5%	25.8%	23.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	13.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	0.4%	16.9%	28.8%	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	3.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	81%	72.3°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	65.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	60.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	60.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	61.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	59.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗