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KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
81%
AIFS
51%
HRES
23%
WN2
21%
ICON
20%
Consensus
36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.45u
VS
ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:001.7%81.2%22.7%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:001.7%81.2%22.7%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:001.7%81.2%25.3%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:001.7%81.2%25.3%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:001.7%81.2%25.3%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:001.7%81.2%25.3%44.0%23.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:0029.0%81.2%25.3%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0029.0%81.2%25.3%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0029.0%81.2%25.3%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:0029.0%81.2%25.3%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:0029.0%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:0029.0%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:0029.0%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:0050.7%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:0050.7%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:0050.7%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0050.7%81.2%21.4%22.9%19.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble81%72.3°F7.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
AIFS Single51%65.6°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend27%60.0°F8.9°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES23%60.6°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%61.8°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON20%59.4°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗