KDEN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

64%

57%

45%

16%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

AIFSNO 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.10u · AIFS −44.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	2.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	0.2%	—	59.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	90.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	57.8%	—	59.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	13.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.5%	68.2%	—	90.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	66.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	30.5%	59.1%	4.5%	90.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	96.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	60.1%	95.2%	39.2%	69.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	53.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	72.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	64.3°F	7.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	63.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	60.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	55.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗