KDEN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

64%

57%

45%

16%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

AIFSNO 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.10u · AIFS −44.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	52.1%	60.8%	59.3%	96.1%	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	52.1%	60.8%	59.3%	96.1%	14.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	52.1%	60.8%	59.3%	96.1%	14.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	14.0%	60.7%	59.3%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	14.0%	60.7%	59.3%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	59.3%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	59.3%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	14.0%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	34.1%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	12.6%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	15.7%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	15.7%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	15.7%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	15.7%	63.8%	44.6%	96.1%	56.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	72.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	64.3°F	7.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	63.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	60.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	55.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗