KDEN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

66%

25%

12%

10%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u

ICONNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.45u · ICON −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	14.0%	44.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	24.4%	62.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	40.5%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	0.4%	68.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	2.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	27.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	50.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	69.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	69.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	62.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	60.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	53.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗