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KDEN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
67%
HRES
66%
AIFS
25%
WN2
12%
ICON
10%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u
VS
ICONNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.45u · ICON −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 65.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00IFS HRES: 65.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 65.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 65.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 65.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:0025.4%67.1%11.8%65.7%10.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0025.4%67.1%11.8%65.7%10.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0025.4%67.1%11.8%65.7%10.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0025.4%67.1%11.8%65.7%10.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0025.4%67.1%11.8%65.7%10.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble67%69.2°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES66%69.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend53%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single25%62.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%60.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON10%53.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗