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KDEN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
16%
EPS
15%
ICON
2%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.2¢Risks 4.08u
VS
WN2NO 91.8¢Risks 45.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.92u · WN2 −45.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.8%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%——2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.7%——0.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.0%——1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%——0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:003.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.4%——1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%——1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.7%——1.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.2%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:006.7%——1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%——2.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.4%——5.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%——7.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.9%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:002.6%—0.7%6.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.2%—1.7%13.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.5%—4.6%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.6%—0.0%16.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%1.6%4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——6.2%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES16%69.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%69.2°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend14%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%53.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%62.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%60.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗