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KDEN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
16%
EPS
15%
ICON
2%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.2¢Risks 4.08u
VS
WN2NO 91.8¢Risks 45.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.92u · WN2 −45.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 16.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:001.3%15.1%0.2%16.1%1.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:001.3%15.1%0.2%16.1%1.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:001.3%15.1%0.2%16.1%1.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:001.3%15.1%0.2%16.1%1.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:001.3%15.1%0.2%16.1%1.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES16%69.1°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%69.2°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend14%67.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%53.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single1%62.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%60.0°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Denver runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗