KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

30%

22%

20%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

WN2NO 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.10u · WN2 −46.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	88.0%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	35.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	31.8%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	27.7%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	18.0%	6.3%	54.2%	—	65.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	3.6%	98.4%	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	67.7%	16.4%	83.1%	—	53.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	64.1%	48.4%	23.6%	—	69.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	75.5%	52.5%	30.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	22.0%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	40.5%	57.0%	6.5%	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	30.2%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	29.7%	48.2%	7.3%	—	26.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	29.2%	48.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	15.3%	37.6%	6.8%	—	14.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	18.3%	35.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	23.5%	28.5%	2.8%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.1%	26.2%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	14.9%	27.3%	4.7%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.8%	31.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.5%	28.9%	3.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.8%	21.6%	2.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.0%	22.7%	4.0%	3.5%	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.5%	21.9%	3.2%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	26.2%	2.2%	5.0%	4.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.7%	27.6%	2.7%	—	3.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.9%	31.8%	4.7%	6.3%	2.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.1%	26.0%	3.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.0%	19.2%	1.3%	5.2%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.1%	20.3%	2.1%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	74.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9742
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3158
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
ICON	30%	66.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0888
IFS HRES	22%	65.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0497
AIFS Single	20%	64.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0404
WeatherNext 2	9%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗