KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

30%

22%

20%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

WN2NO 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.10u · WN2 −46.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:32+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	9.6%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	9.6%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	9.6%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	7.3%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	7.3%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	20.7%	98.7%	7.3%	28.8%	18.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	7.3%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	7.3%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	7.3%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	7.3%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	7.3%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	21.4%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	20.1%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	20.1%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	20.1%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	20.1%	98.7%	9.1%	22.3%	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	74.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.9742
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3158
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3036
ICON	30%	66.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0888
IFS HRES	22%	65.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0497
AIFS Single	20%	64.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0404
WeatherNext 2	9%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0083

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗