KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

20%

16%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

WN2NO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.15u · WN2 −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	72.2%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	15.7%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	13.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	10.2%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.2%	1.3%	27.5%	—	37.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.6%	92.1%	—	35.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	38.0%	4.1%	57.6%	—	24.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	33.0%	20.1%	6.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	44.2%	21.9%	9.0%	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.1%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	13.1%	24.1%	0.8%	—	13.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.8%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.3%	16.6%	0.9%	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.7%	15.9%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.3%	9.8%	0.7%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.8%	8.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.0%	5.5%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	4.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	4.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	5.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	4.2%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	2.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.9%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	76.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7022
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2079
IFS HRES	20%	68.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0400
ICON	16%	67.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0272
AIFS Single	4%	64.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0020
WeatherNext 2	2%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗