KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

20%

16%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

WN2NO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.15u · WN2 −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:11+00:00	14.0%	82.0%	9.7%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	14.0%	82.0%	9.7%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	14.0%	82.0%	8.1%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	14.0%	82.0%	8.1%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	14.0%	82.0%	8.1%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	10.0%	82.0%	8.1%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	10.0%	82.0%	8.1%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	10.0%	82.0%	8.1%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	10.0%	82.0%	8.1%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	10.0%	82.0%	8.1%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	10.0%	83.9%	3.0%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	10.0%	83.9%	3.0%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	10.0%	83.9%	3.0%	13.1%	23.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	3.0%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	3.0%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	3.0%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	3.0%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	23.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	2.2%	13.1%	16.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	7.9%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.5%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	4.5%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	4.5%	83.8%	1.9%	20.0%	16.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	76.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.7022
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2079
IFS HRES	20%	68.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0400
ICON	16%	67.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0272
AIFS Single	4%	64.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0020
WeatherNext 2	2%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0004

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗