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KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
73%
EPS
71%
ICON
25%
AIFS
7%
WN2
3%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u
VS
WN2NO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +62.10u · WN2 −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 72.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:50+00:004.9%80.1%5.5%70.4%24.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:004.9%80.1%12.0%70.4%24.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:004.9%80.1%12.0%70.4%24.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:004.9%80.1%12.0%70.4%24.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:23+00:002.8%80.1%12.0%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:002.8%80.1%12.0%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:002.8%80.1%12.0%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:002.8%80.1%12.0%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T10:34:05+00:002.8%80.1%12.0%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T11:20:06+00:002.8%71.0%2.9%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:002.8%71.0%2.9%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:002.8%71.0%2.9%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:007.2%71.0%2.9%72.9%24.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:007.0%70.8%2.9%72.9%24.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES73%78.5°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.5314
IFS Ensemble71%79.4°F8.9°F2026-10-11 00:000.5013
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
National Blend36%71.0°F10.0°F2026-10-11 06:000.1318
ICON25%67.8°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0615
AIFS Single7%66.7°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0049
WeatherNext 23%65.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗