KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

71%

25%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

WN2NO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +62.10u · WN2 −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	61.6%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	9.3%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	7.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	5.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.4%	0.5%	17.1%	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	85.2%	—	22.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	24.5%	1.7%	42.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	20.1%	10.8%	2.7%	—	24.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	28.6%	11.6%	3.9%	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.0%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	12.7%	0.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.1%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.8%	7.6%	0.2%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	7.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	3.8%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	78.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5314
IFS Ensemble	71%	79.4°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5013
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
National Blend	36%	71.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1318
ICON	25%	67.8°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0615
AIFS Single	7%	66.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0049
WeatherNext 2	3%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0008

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗