KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≤ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

78%

71%

63%

<1%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.35u

EPSNO 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.65u · EPS −52.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	9.3%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	58.7%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	62.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	66.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	77.0%	91.3%	38.9%	—	28.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	94.7%	1.0%	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	25.8%	78.4%	12.5%	—	39.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	28.8%	43.6%	69.8%	—	24.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	18.4%	39.3%	61.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	71.2%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	50.9%	34.6%	90.3%	—	50.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	61.5%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	61.8%	42.7%	89.0%	—	65.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	62.1%	42.5%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	78.2%	52.9%	89.3%	—	79.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	74.3%	55.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	67.9%	62.2%	95.1%	—	90.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	81.7%	64.5%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	77.8%	62.9%	91.9%	100.0%	91.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	81.7%	57.8%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	83.2%	60.4%	93.9%	—	93.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	86.8%	68.5%	95.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	92.5%	66.9%	92.5%	93.3%	86.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	93.2%	67.5%	93.6%	—	87.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	92.1%	61.9%	95.4%	90.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	90.8%	59.7%	94.2%	—	92.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	88.5%	54.3%	90.5%	87.8%	94.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	89.5%	60.5%	92.5%	—	97.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	95.2%	68.3%	96.6%	89.0%	98.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	90.8%	66.1%	94.7%	—	95.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	94%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036
National Blend	80%	66.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0404
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0506
NWS forecast	76%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	71%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0818
AIFS Single	63%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1376
IFS Ensemble	<1%	74.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9860

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗