KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≤ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

78%

71%

63%

<1%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 47.3¢Risks 47.35u

EPSNO 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +52.65u · EPS −52.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:52+00:00	57.7%	6.5%	56.8%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	57.7%	6.5%	56.8%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	57.7%	6.5%	56.8%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	57.7%	6.5%	56.8%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	57.7%	6.5%	56.8%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	57.7%	1.5%	70.4%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	57.7%	1.5%	70.4%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	57.7%	1.5%	70.4%	54.8%	37.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	70.5%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	70.5%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:46+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	70.5%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	70.5%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	37.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	47.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	47.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	47.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	74.9%	54.8%	47.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	62.8%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	72.9%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	47.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	72.7%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	73.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	72.7%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	73.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	72.7%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	73.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	72.7%	1.5%	76.6%	43.6%	73.6%
2026-10-14T10:33:51+00:00	72.7%	1.5%	76.6%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	72.7%	0.7%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	72.7%	0.7%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	72.7%	0.7%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	72.0%	0.7%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	72.0%	0.7%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	84.3%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	87.6%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	87.6%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	72.0%	0.5%	87.6%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	87.6%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	87.6%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	87.6%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	87.6%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	87.6%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	71.2%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	72.8%	0.5%	85.0%	70.4%	60.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	85.0%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	85.0%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	85.0%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	85.0%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	85.0%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	71.4%	0.5%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	71.4%	0.9%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	71.4%	0.9%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	67.0%	0.9%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	67.1%	1.1%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:04+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	89.6%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	80.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	88.4%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	67.1%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	87.1%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	68.0%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	63.8%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	63.8%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	63.8%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	63.8%	0.8%	83.3%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	63.8%	0.7%	88.5%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	63.8%	0.7%	88.5%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	63.8%	0.7%	88.5%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	63.8%	0.7%	88.5%	79.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	88.5%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:38+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	88.5%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	88.5%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	88.5%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	60.0%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	94.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	94.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	94.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	85.7%	65.7%	94.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	85.7%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	61.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	87.9%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	77.5%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	77.5%	71.4%	94.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	62.9%	0.7%	77.5%	71.4%	94.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	94%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036
National Blend	80%	66.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0404
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0506
NWS forecast	76%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0566
IFS HRES	71%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0818
AIFS Single	63%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1376
IFS Ensemble	<1%	74.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9860

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗