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KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
56%
HRES
19%
ICON
15%
AIFS
5%
WN2
1%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.75u
VS
WN2NO 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.25u · WN2 −71.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 30.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0010-14 03:4510-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:45:33+00:007.0%82.8%3.6%30.2%50.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:007.0%82.8%3.6%30.2%50.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:007.0%82.8%3.6%30.2%50.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:007.0%82.8%3.6%30.2%50.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:007.0%82.8%3.6%30.2%50.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:004.5%82.8%3.6%30.2%14.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:004.5%82.8%3.6%30.2%14.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:004.5%82.8%3.6%30.2%14.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:004.5%82.8%3.6%30.2%14.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:52+00:004.5%82.8%3.6%18.9%14.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:004.5%56.2%1.3%18.9%14.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:004.5%56.2%1.3%18.9%14.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:004.5%56.2%1.3%18.9%14.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:005.4%56.2%1.3%18.9%14.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:005.4%56.2%1.3%18.9%15.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble56%77.0°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
National Blend36%75.0°F4.0°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES19%72.1°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON15%71.5°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%69.1°F4.6°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%68.2°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗