KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

19%

15%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.8¢Risks 28.75u

WN2NO 71.2¢Risks 71.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.25u · WN2 −71.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	38.2%	5.6%	2.1%	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	53.6%	38.5%	14.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	53.8%	40.9%	11.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	33.7%	47.6%	7.2%	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	30.0%	42.5%	3.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.9%	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.0%	24.1%	0.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.8%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.3%	14.9%	0.2%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.8%	15.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.9%	11.1%	0.4%	—	2.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.3%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.2%	10.8%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.0%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	7.7%	0.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.4%	7.1%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	7.2%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	8.2%	0.7%	—	2.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	8.9%	1.1%	1.1%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	9.2%	1.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	8.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	5.8%	0.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	5.1%	0.7%	0.7%	1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	2.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	3.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	1.6%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	75.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	71.5°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗