KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

34%

15%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +71.55u · WN2 −71.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	20.4%	1.7%	0.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	32.3%	19.9%	5.3%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	31.6%	21.1%	3.6%	—	17.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.4%	25.5%	2.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.5%	20.7%	0.6%	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	8.6%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	4.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	4.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.5%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	80.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
ICON	34%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	73.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗