KDFW / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

26%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.1¢Risks 20.05u

EPSNO 80.0¢Risks 79.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.95u · EPS −79.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	94.7%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	84.7%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	89.9%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	78.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	7.2%	43.0%	60.4%	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	2.7%	6.2%	22.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	2.2%	4.6%	24.5%	—	6.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	5.7%	2.6%	29.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	5.8%	2.8%	41.7%	—	16.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	35.0%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	23.4%	6.8%	60.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	18.4%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	19.6%	10.2%	71.8%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	23.8%	8.8%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	21.8%	11.1%	57.7%	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	16.4%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	17.0%	9.0%	55.1%	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	22.0%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	22.1%	9.4%	55.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	19.8%	8.7%	99.5%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	21.5%	7.2%	37.4%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	17.5%	5.1%	28.3%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	16.6%	3.7%	19.9%	19.9%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	21.9%	2.8%	18.2%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	23.0%	2.4%	23.0%	28.4%	38.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	12.4%	2.7%	19.1%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	3.7%	2.3%	11.5%	11.5%	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	6.5%	4.1%	27.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	6.1%	1.6%	23.8%	8.3%	10.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	2.8%	2.3%	12.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	40%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	70.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261018-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Dallas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗