KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

69%

64%

58%

31%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	34.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	4.0%	43.3%	—	—	83.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	96.5%	82.5%	4.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	95.1%	58.0%	67.7%	—	77.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	87.5%	44.7%	35.8%	—	71.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	60.3%	63.3%	18.4%	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.8%	62.3%	16.2%	—	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	18.4%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	43.0%	71.6%	13.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	58.0%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	56.4%	71.0%	19.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	39.7%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	48.0%	62.4%	26.3%	—	46.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	49.0%	58.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	51.0%	63.1%	33.0%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	44.7%	65.5%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	54.4%	69.9%	37.1%	0.0%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	53.4%	73.3%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	46.5%	72.0%	30.0%	23.3%	23.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	40.5%	71.7%	27.3%	—	37.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	63.4%	73.4%	32.0%	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	47.4%	63.9%	32.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	48.7%	64.4%	33.1%	22.0%	43.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	55.6%	61.0%	43.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	52.9%	58.6%	48.5%	37.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	81.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	58%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	72.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗