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KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
HRES
69%
AIFS
64%
ICON
58%
WN2
31%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u
VS
WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00IFS HRES: 68.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00ICON: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:0057.4%98.8%21.2%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:0057.4%98.9%21.2%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:0057.4%98.9%21.2%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:0057.4%98.9%26.7%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:0057.4%98.9%26.7%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:0057.4%98.9%26.7%64.8%55.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:0061.9%98.9%26.7%64.8%58.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:0061.9%98.9%26.7%64.8%58.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:0061.9%98.9%26.7%64.8%58.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:0061.9%98.9%26.7%64.8%58.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:0061.9%98.9%26.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:0061.9%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:0061.9%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:0061.9%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:0063.7%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0063.7%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:0063.7%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:0063.7%98.9%30.7%68.9%58.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble99%81.1°F2.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES69%76.7°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single64%76.0°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON58%75.3°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend55%75.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 231%72.8°F3.4°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗