KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

39%

21%

13%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.3¢Risks 34.30u

WN2NO 65.7¢Risks 65.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.70u · WN2 −65.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	63.0%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	44.8%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.9%	25.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	70.2%	34.3%	0.3%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	9.3%	45.6%	15.2%	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	32.3%	25.8%	12.5%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	21.2%	33.7%	4.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	27.9%	49.2%	6.6%	—	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	4.9%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	14.6%	26.9%	6.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	16.1%	22.9%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	18.4%	24.4%	9.4%	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	17.7%	20.3%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	18.3%	21.8%	9.4%	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	17.7%	21.1%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.9%	20.4%	1.3%	0.0%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.0%	17.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	15.5%	14.3%	6.2%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.2%	17.5%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	8.5%	16.8%	4.5%	0.0%	10.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	15.2%	14.5%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	21.7%	12.4%	3.3%	5.9%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.3%	14.3%	3.5%	—	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	82.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	80.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	78.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	77.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	76.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗