KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

34%

33%

12%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 25.60u

WN2NO 74.4¢Risks 74.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.40u · WN2 −74.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	32.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.4%	15.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	57.0%	22.4%	0.1%	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.6%	31.7%	8.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	20.0%	15.1%	6.3%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	11.5%	20.6%	1.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	15.7%	33.0%	2.7%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.9%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.8%	14.6%	2.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	7.5%	11.6%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.6%	12.4%	3.8%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	8.1%	9.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.2%	10.2%	3.5%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	7.6%	9.6%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.5%	9.0%	0.3%	0.0%	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.8%	7.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.9%	5.3%	1.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.8%	6.7%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.5%	6.1%	1.1%	0.0%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.1%	4.8%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.0%	3.7%	0.7%	1.4%	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.3%	4.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	82.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	77.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	76.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗